World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer’s Pre-Draw Projections

At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022. They are split into 12 groups of four, with 32 teams advancing to the knockout rounds.

Argentina are the closest challenger and sit on the opposite half of the bracket, setting up a possible repeat of the 2022 final. Canada finished second behind Switzerland and chase a first men’s World Cup knockout win against South Africa in the opening tie. Six host nations have won the World Cup, most recently France in 1998.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner

Argentina are overwhelming favourites to continue their perfect World Cup campaign, even with Lionel Messi confirmed to begin the match from the substitutes bench. Despite sitting a point behind Ghana in Group L, Croatia are clear favourites to claim victory, according to the Opta supercomputer. Morocco, Senegal, Ghana, and Ivory Coast are all set to feature in the tournament and could find a way to cause major upsets and book a spot in the latter rounds. Our site ensures you have the latest predictions for the World Cup 2026, including qualifiers, and encourages you to make smarter betting decisions with analytical research going into each and every projection we provide.

Argentina: Can They Defend?

There are many nations from Africa that could have a huge impact on the 2026 World Cup, just like Morocco who managed to make it all the way to the semi-final of the 2022 tournament in Qatar. Make sure you stick to your research and utilise World Cup predictions when placing bets on the biggest tournament in world football. Similarly, tactics tend to play a large role for international teams. Spain for example have always played in a similar way which involves having lots of possession, whilst Italy for example have always been well-known for being resilient defensively. On top of those nations, Brazil, Germany, and many other countries can also have a big part to play in the 2026 World Cup too in what is expected to be an enthralling tournament.

• Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through.
• England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy.
• Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit.
• The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals, and the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in bracket semi-finals, with the winners of the two bracket finals reaching the FIFA World Cup 26.
• Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament.
• It can be important to look at historical matchups like England vs Germany for example, and where the results over the years may indicate which team might win the upcoming game.
• With nations playing so infrequently, head-to-head results can have a much larger impact than it does for club teams.
• There is something quite romantic about one of the godfathers of management being appointed by the most famous footballing country to bring home the greatest prize in football for a record-extending sixth time.
• World Cup 2026 Outright – Argentina @ 4/1Argentina sit second in the World Cup 2026 outright winner market at 4/1.

Alexi Lalas’ 2026 FIFA World Cup Bracket Prediction

Ronald Koeman’s team have scored 10 times at the 2026 World Cup and have emerged as a side to watch when it comes to a potential challenge for the trophy. Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games. While our percentages have not proven overly kind to them, we should be clear that just reaching the tournament is a spectacular accomplishment.

These two met at the same stage of Euro 2024 and Spain won en route to glory. France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament. Houston is a long way from Canada, and this is probably where the co-hosts’ run comes to earth, with 2022 semifinalists Morocco going deep once more. Senegal looked sharp in their final win over Iraq but didn’t impress much against Norway ro France. European opponents tend to fill the United States with dread, but Bosnia has faded down the stretch in all of their matches, even the win over Qatar. Both of these teams have enjoyed free-scoring group-stage outingsm but if Sweden enter a 90-minute shootout with Kylian Mbappe and company, they are likely to be outgunned.

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The match result market is heavily skewed toward Argentina, who are available at the best price of 1/6 across nine leading operators. Cape Verde are a 19/1 shot to cause one of the tournament’s great upsets. The draw is priced at 15/2, reflecting just how unlikely a stalemate is given the gap in class between these two sides.

Tournament Statistics

They won’t have the same surprise factor this time around but still made it to what proved to be a chaotic AFCON final this year and started the month of June sitting a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings. Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia and Morocco should all realistically target a long run and are dark horses to go the distance. But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States. It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.

World Cup Day 14 What to Watch: Canada, South Korea looking to advance; Brazil, Scotland meet with Group C at stake

Japan and Sweden are well organized but lack the elite experience needed to challenge the Dutch. I like Japan’s technical depth to edge Sweden for second, but they can still qualify to the next round as a top third-place team, with Tunisia finishing at the bottom. I like Bosnia to top the group, with Switzerland following and Canada advancing as a top third‑place finisher.

• Nestor Lorenzo’s team look a little more battle hardened and should edge through.
• Germany are four-time world champions, but they were knocked out in the group stage of both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
• Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them.
• Cape Verde are not believed to have significant injury concerns heading into this fixture.
• The Oranje’s run to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 – losing late on to England – was their best at any tournament since finishing third at the 2014 World Cup.
• However, SportsLine soccer expert Matt Severance is looking for a little added security by playing Mexico (tie no bet) for a -215 payout.
• Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days.
• Haaland has led from the front, while Ødegaard continues to dictate play from midfield.
• Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award.
• Jordan’s Moussa Al Tamari is a player to watch and capable of driving a surprise run.

Brazil vs. Japan

Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages. Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs. But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals.

What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Morocco?

According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way. The supercomputer believes Spain have a chance to ease into the tournament, as they topped Group H in a massive 75.3% of sims, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde representing a reasonably kind draw. Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region. U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA chief Gianni Infantino will present the winning country with the trophy in East Rutherford, New Jersey when the competition concludes with the World Cup final on 19 July. Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, defeating France in a breathtaking final that ended 3-3 after extra time before the Albiceleste won on penalties.

• Norway, meanwhile, is making its first World Cup appearance since France 1998 and has looked every bit like a dangerous dark horse.
• The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes.
• A complete Python pipeline for predicting match outcomes, generatingexpected goals, and running Monte Carlo tournament simulations.Built for YouTube creators who want AI-powered soccer analysis.
• Jesse Marsch’s co-hosts missed out on top spot in Group B after defeat to Switzerland and must decamp to L.A.
• Just 18 years old, he is tipped to be the young player of the tournament and already has the ability to spearhead his team to World Cup glory.
• These four all reached the knockouts and have the profile to go further.
• Iran captain Mehdi Taremi accused FIFA of failing to address logistical problems facing his team at the World Cup after Friday’s 1-1 draw with Egypt.
• Turkey could be one of the surprise packages this summer, as they gear up for their first World Cup since a memorable third-place finish in 2002.
• This page is refreshed after each knockout round, so the picks always reflect the latest results.
• He writes with the perspective of someone who genuinely cares about where the club is heading rather than simply reporting what has already happened.

Study Team Tactics and Head-to-Head Results

• Here’s the breakdown on all of them, including what you need to know about each team.
• They made it to the UEFA Nations League final – where it took a penalty shootout for Portugal to beat them – and eased through qualification, topping Türkiye to go unbeaten across six games.
• Within that sextet, three teams are seen as the biggest challengers to Spain and three others, while very much in the mix, might need a little more good fortune to go their way if they are to emerge triumphant.
• Colombia will become just the third South American team Portugal have faced at the World Cup, following previous meetings with Brazil and Uruguay.
• The field has been supersized from 32 to 48 teams and the competition will begin in earnest on June 11 with Mexico hosting South Africa at Mexico City’s famed Estadio Azteca.
• It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.
• Paraguay are through as one of the best third-placed finishers at the competition, while Germany finished at the head of Group E to secure a spot in the round of 32.
• For Cape Verde and manager Rui Aguas, simply reaching this stage has already rewritten what is possible for African football’s smaller nations, and anything further would be a genuine shock to the tournament bracket.
• Yahoo users are largely united about how the group stage will play out.
• France lead our World Cup 2026 predictions after winning the toughest group in the tournament, and we are calling a France vs Argentina final on July 19, a rematch of the 2022 showpiece.
• Spain for example have always played in a similar way which involves having lots of possession, whilst Italy for example have always been well-known for being resilient defensively.
• Only a penalty shootout denied them a bronze medal, as they lost to Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay in the third-place play-off.
• Green has studied the 2026 World Cup draw and locked in his best bets and predictions, including his outright winner.

The expanded format will give more teams a chance, but it will also test the endurance and tactical flexibility of every squad. The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams — the largest in tournament history. Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket. Simulate or predict every match of the 48-team tournament — group stage through the final.

We say: Netherlands 1-2 Morocco

This can impact a team’s chances heavily, especially if it is a top goalscorer or stalwart defender that is essential to the way the nation plays. There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years. In our pick ’em for the World Cup, users select who they think will win each of the 12 groups ahead of the tournament’s first game on Thursday. Then, after the group stage concludes and 32 of the tournament’s 48 teams move on to the knockout rounds, users can then pick the results of each of the 31 elimination games.

No nation has retained the men’s World Cup since Brazil in 1962, and the expanded 48-team format adds an extra knockout round and more upset paths than any previous edition. Each of these teams has the potential to control a group and advance deep into the tournament. Emerging teams from Africa and Asia could challenge traditional powerhouses, especially under the new format. This edition already attracts attention not only because of its scale but also due to the growing competition among top teams.

Group A: Czechia vs Mexico Battle, South Korea Eyeing Third-Place Path

In the time since, he has worked for a wide range of well-known publications including the Evening Standard, FourFourTwo, Football365, GOAL and TNT Sports. In his current role as a freelance content producer for The Sporting News, he writes betting content mostly for football but also tennis, golf, rugby union and Formula 1. The main challenge in Group J is identifying who finishes behind Argentina, as Lionel Messi’s final World Cup campaign makes them clear favorites. Jordan’s Moussa Al Tamari is a player to watch and capable of driving a surprise run. While Algeria and Austria bring veteran leadership, Al‑Tamari’s pace and creativity could tilt the balance.

FIFA World Cup 2026, Round Of 32: Ivory Coast vs Norway Predicted Lineups, Team News, Prediction And More

Get FREE daily news and in-depth previews for games from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football — straight to your inbox. Morocco have never won the World Cup, but they did reach the semi-finals of the 2022 tournament, which represented their best-ever run in the competition. Morocco, meanwhile, picked up seven points from their three games in Group C to finish second, only behind Brazil on goal difference. Of the teams in the bottom quarter of our projections, there are a few standout nations who the system thinks could spring a surprise. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge.

Few nations in football history have possessed such an embarrassment of attacking riches. Yet there remains a nagging doubt over whether the France manager can truly maximise what he has at his disposal. The World Cup kicks off on June 11 – but who will lift the trophy after the final on July 19?

• However, there’s a good reason why Switzerland are odds-on to walk away with a top-table finish, having progressed from the group stages in four of their five World Cup appearances this century.
• Gustavo Alfaro’s team will enter this match off the back of a goalless draw with Australia, while their one success this summer was a 1-0 victory over Turkey.
• Saudi Arabia remain the wildcard, but I’m sticking with the two heavyweights to advance.
• Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out.
• Six World Cup games, knockout places on the line, Cape Verde make history and Iran wait for a place in the Round of 32.
• The White and Reds picked up four points from their three Group D matches to finish third, only behind second-placed Australia on goal difference.
• This contest may be decided in extra time or penalties, favoring Senegal.
• The Netherlands have been in free-scoring form so far, plundering 10 in Group F. Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet, though, and Morocco’s vibrant attack will play fearlessly as they have all tournament.

Every match is assessed individually, but long-term trends are equally important. A team that performs consistently across different tournaments often carries that stability into the World Cup. Live scores for every match of the 2026 World Cup, in your timezone.

They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. He’s a winner and with the squad he’s picked, he obviously has a plan. Gareth Southgate did a fabulous job, reaching back-to-back Euros finals with England, but his in-game management was called into question as he failed to get England over the line. That is where Tuchel excels and it could prove to be the difference maker for the Three Lions.

Whether you want to forecast the whole tournament, compete with friends, or just watch the games — we’ve got you covered. The last time that happened, between Argentina and West Germany in 1990, the European nation gained its revenge. France can power clear as Argentina’s exertions against Portugal and Brazil catch up with them, and Messi runs out of fairy-tales. The Netherlands have been in free-scoring form so far, plundering 10 in Group F. Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet, though, and Morocco’s vibrant attack will play fearlessly as they have all tournament. Jesse Marsch’s co-hosts missed out on top spot in Group B after defeat to Switzerland and must decamp to L.A.

History is not on their side in this matchup, as Switzerland arrive with a full-strength side built on midfield physicality and an elite attacking presence in Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder. Mexico will need an all‑around effort to advance under the new knockout format, relying on far more than home support to reach the next round. The 2026 FIFA World Cup introduces the most dramatic format change in tournament history, expanding to 48 teams and creating a brand-new bracket structure that reshapes how every round unfolds. With more nations, an added knockout round, and third-place teams advancing, predicting the full tournament path is more complex, and more intriguing, than ever.

Saudi Arabia remain the wildcard, but I’m sticking with the two heavyweights to advance. Like Messi, Ronaldo will appear at a record-breaking sixth edition of the World Cup, but of his eight goals in 22 games at the tournament, three have been penalties and none have come in the knockout stages. Julian Nagelsmann’s side were beaten in the quarter-finals on home soil at Euro 2024, marking the first time Germany have appeared at four major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) in a row without reaching a semi-final at any of them. La Roja swept all before them, winning six of their seven matches inside 90 minutes and only requiring extra-time to eliminate hosts Germany in the quarter-final. They scored 15 goals in the tournament – four more than anyone else.

They are robust, organised, physically powerful and extremely difficult to break down. With William Pacho and Moises Caicedo forming the spine of the team, they have the foundations required to frustrate even the elite nations. They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way. The Opta supercomputer gave the reigning world champions a 77.9 percent chance of victory across 25,000 pre-match simulations.

How to Watch the World Cup Today: Schedule, Times, TV, Streaming for Brazil, Netherlands, More

Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability. Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. That previous dry spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition.

With Javier Aguirre at the helm now, they look likely to achieve that feat again. Football’s biggest stage returns this summer as a stacked line-up of global contenders collide in pursuit of 2026 FIFA World Cup glory. Sweden (in 1958) and Czechia (in 1934 and 1962) have both been World Cup finalists previously (the latter as Czechoslovakia) but could still miss the tournament, as could former European champions Denmark. But a stunning defeat to Guatemala, in another shootout, ended Canada’s Gold Cup campaign at the quarter-final stage and brought them crashing down to earth. There will likely be an experienced feel to their squad, led by Fulham striker Raúl Jiménez, who is only eight away from Javier Hernández’s all-time Mexico goal record of 52.

Brazil vs. Mexico

South Africa (0.1%) are the joint 37th likeliest winners of the World Cup but still have a healthy 49.3% chance of making the knockouts, helped by being in a group where co-hosts Mexico are the top seeds. Ecuador (1.4%) are potentially tricky opponents who the top teams will want to avoid. They impressively finished second in South American qualifying and conceded just five goals in 18 matches. Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance. They are expected to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B. In terms of winning the tournament, USA’s chances are more remote but still respectable at 1.2%.

The draw was rated at 13.3 percent, leaving Jordan – who have already been eliminated from the 2026 tournament – with just an 8.8 percent chance of pulling off a famous upset and claiming their first-ever World Cup win. Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament. There are quite often, and unfortunately, major injuries that rule out certain players from the World Cup Finals, much to the devastation of the players themselves and their nations.

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Die Mannschaft actually locked horns with Paraguay in the last-16 stage of the 2002 World Cup, recording a 1-0 victory courtesy of a late effort from Oliver Neuville. Germany are four-time world champions, but they were knocked out in the group stage of both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. DFB-Team were not mentioned as one of the serious challengers for the trophy pre-tournament, and they are still regarded as outsiders at this stage, especially as France could be waiting in the last-16 stage of the tournament. However, the 2-1 defeat to Ecuador last time out was still a major disappointment, with Julian Nagelsmann’s side therefore set to enter this match off the back of a defeat. Our World Cup 2026 betting guide has all of the latest information on the match. Netherlands could meet a Germany or a France in the final eight, and their performances thus far have suggested that a potential challenge for the trophy is possible.

• Messi is in record-breaking form, and Argentina’s path to the final avoids most of the other heavyweights until the semifinals.
• Similarly, tactics tend to play a large role for international teams.
• South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early.
• Despite sitting a point behind Ghana in Group L, Croatia are clear favourites to claim victory, according to the Opta supercomputer.
• They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia.
• They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players.
• Goalkeeper Vozinha, a veteran of 86 caps, has been the experienced anchor behind the defensive shape that earned their group stage draws.
• France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway.
• Their friendly results tell a more mixed story, with a heavy defeat to Bermuda sandwiched around a comfortable win over Serbia.

Group E: Germany Clear Favorite as Ivory Coast and Ecuador Battle for Second

Portugal go into the World Cup with momentum after winning the Nations League under Roberto Martínez. Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet. Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award. France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury. As such a wide range of countries with very different World Cup histories fight it out, the 23rd edition may well prove to be the most compelling.

Brazil vs Japan Round of 32: Date, Time, TV Channel & How to Watch

• Julian Nagelsmann’s side were beaten in the quarter-finals on home soil at Euro 2024, marking the first time Germany have appeared at four major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) in a row without reaching a semi-final at any of them.
• Head coach Amir Ghalenoei described the team’s misfortune as extraordinary after Iran became the first side at the tournament to have three goals ruled out by VAR.
• Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated.
• England’s golden generation finally has tournament experience after consecutive deep runs.
• The draw is priced at 15/2, reflecting just how unlikely a stalemate is given the gap in class between these two sides.
• Football’s biggest stage returns this summer as a stacked line-up of global contenders collide in pursuit of 2026 FIFA World Cup glory.
• Fans and analysts are actively discussing World Cup 2026 predictions, trying to understand which team will be ready to go all the way.
• Looking ahead, many World Cup 2026 predictions point toward a final involving two European or South American giants.
• Norway have nothing to lose and can hurt Brazil, but they have a defence that Vinicius and company can exploit enough times to progress.
• The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition.
• Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance.
• Egypt, Mohamed Salah and all, should have more than enough to do the job here.
• The main challenge in Group J is identifying who finishes behind Argentina, as Lionel Messi’s final World Cup campaign makes them clear favorites.

Norway, meanwhile, is making its first World Cup appearance since France 1998 and has looked every bit like a dangerous dark horse. At Juve FC, Luca covers match analysis, squad news, and the longer threads that run through a Juventus season. He writes with the perspective of someone who genuinely cares about where the club is heading rather than simply reporting what has already happened. His focus tends to lean toward how the team sets up, where things break down, and what needs to change to get back to where Juventus belongs in the European conversation.

With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals. The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong. A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style https://worldcup2026sea.com with two consecutive hat-tricks.